Murphy will end up returning to college

Upon hearing the news that Troy Murphy would forego his senior year at Notre Dame to test NBA draft waters, I shook my head.

Bad decision.

Even though he is predicted by numerous mock drafts to be chosen somewhere between the 5 and 15 slots, the 6-11 245 pound forward will likely return to school once he realizes how low he might actually fall. Murphy has already stated that he will not participate in any pre-draft camps, instead settling for a few private workouts with clubs. This means that teams who do not get the chance to work out Murphy will have to base any draft day decisions solely on his accomplishments at Notre Dame. Now, most people would say that is a good thing because of Murphy's known accolades, however, take a closer look at Murphy's 2000-2001 statistics and see that his award winning numbers aren't all that impressive.

Overall statistical averages (total 30 games)

POINTS	REBOUNDS	FG - FGA	FG%	3PT - 3PTA	3PT%	TO's
21.8	9.2	223 - 473	.471	30 - 86	.349	90

Statistical averages (19 games versus unranked opponents)

POINTS	REBOUNDS	FG - FGA	FG%	3PT - 3PTA	3PT%	TO's
22.1	9.1	148 - 286	.517	21 -51	.421	40

Statistical averages (11 games against teams that were ranked at one point or another)

POINTS	REBOUNDS	FG - FGA	FG%	3PT - 3PTA	3PT%	TO's
21.0	9.5	75 - 187	.401	9 - 35	.257	50

Despite maintaining consistent scoring and rebounding averages all season, Murphy struggled greatly against good teams. He only shot 40% against the likes of Kentucky, Syracuse, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Indiana, Boston College, Cincinnati, Xavier and Mississippi. Meanwhile, he padded his stats against weaker teams like Sacred Heart (31 points), Canisius (29), Rutgers (37), and an undersized St. John's (34). In the tournament, Murphy went a combined 10-33 from the field and only managed to score in the high teens due to superb foul shooting.

Maybe the stat that sticks out the most is turnovers. Murphy coughed up the ball ten more times in those eleven games against ranked competition, than he did altogether in the other 19 games.

The competition will only get tougher in the NBA.

Characterized as a warrior with a strong mid-range game, Murphy will have to make several adjustments if he is to succeed on the next level. First, he needs to work on his conditioning. As he is now, Murphy is way too slow to play the 3 spot on both ends of the floor. And the only way he hangs with bigger and stronger power forwards is if he out works them. Second, Murphy needs to establish a consistent post-up game. At ND, he scored the majority of his points on open spot-up jumpers and on face-up drives to the basket. Lastly, he needs to improve his ball-handling ability. NBA clubs won't play a big man who turns the ball over 3.6 times a game - Murphy's turnover average against top teams.

Had Murphy entered last year's horrendous draft, he probably would have been selected in the lottery. But this year's class is deep at both center and forward positions. Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, Eddie Griffin, Zach Randolph, Loren Woods, Michael Bradley, Rodney White, Brendan Haywood, Shane Battier, and Michael Wright may all hear their names called before Murphy. Throw a couple of guards into the mix, and Murphy is a late first round choice.

Besides, how many players have recently shined at Notre Dame only to later turn out a waste of a draft pick? Laphonso Ellis, Monty Williams and Pat Garrity. Three benchwarmers.

By returning to school, Murphy adds another year of seasoning. Combine that with a 2002 draft weak on forwards and Murphy is back into lottery consideration. Only good can come from his return back to school.

Murphy is from a middle-class New Jersey family that isn't struggling to put food on the table by any means. He doesn't need to go now.

Because he has said he will not sign with an agent, one can assume that Murphy is well aware of his options. I think we will see him back next year in navy and gold.