|
|
NCAA Tournament Preview
By Gene Huh
The key to success in your office NCAA tourney pool is to study what has happened in the past. History repeats itself again and again, and if you study previous NCAA tournament results, you can get a feel for common trends. Based on extensive study of NCAA tournaments going back to 1989, I have compiled a list of things that a team should have in order to make the Final Four. Since the game has changed significantly during the 90's, I will focus the analysis on Final Four teams from the last five seasons.
Every Final Four Team Must Have
1. NBA Caliber Talent
A team must have at least one player with the talent to get selected in the first round of the NBA draft. Assuming that Ken Johnson, who was on the 1999 Ohio State Final Four squad, gets drafted in the first round this summer, the only Final Four team from the last five years that will have not had a first round pick on its roster will be last year's Wisconsin team.
2. Three-Point Threats
A team must also have at least two three-point shooters with shooting percentages around 40%. In modern college basketball, a team without at least two quality shooters will eventually go cold if forced to play against high quality competition for four straight games.
3. Defensive Stopper
Since virtually every team in the NCAA tournament will have at least one good offensive player, a team must have a defensive stopper to take that offensive threat out of the game.
4. Good Guard Play
Even Dick Vitale realizes that guard play is one of the keys to advancing in the tournament. Good guards can control the tempo of the game and have a much greater impact on a team's tournament success than superior post players do. The lack of good guard play is what really crippled many of the strong Georgetown teams of the late 80's.
5. Leadership & Tournament Experience
A team must have solid leadership from either a solid veteran player or a precocious underclassman. Although it is preferable for the leadership to come from a battle-tested upperclassman with NCAA tournament experience, occassionally a particularly charismatic underclassman such as an Isiah Thomas or a Jalen Rose can lead a team all the way to the final game. Teams lacking in players with NCAA tournament experience, generally falter in the early rounds when the going gets tough.
Now that you know what to look for, this checklist of things that a team must have in order to make it to the Final Four will be applied to this year's top contenders. Plus as a bonus, a list of each team's good wins and bad losses has also been included.
This Year's Contenders
|
Starters: C - Loren Woods (7-1 SR), PF - Michael Wright (6-7 JR), SF - Richard Jefferson (6-7 JR), SG - Gilbert Arenas (6-3 SO), PG - Jason Gardner (5-10 SO)
Key Reserves: F/C - Justin Wessel (6-8 SR), F - Adam Walton (6-8 SO), PF - Gene Edgerson (6-7 SR), G/F Rick Anderson (6-8 JR), G - Lamont Frazier (6-3 SR)
Good Wins: Illinois (n) 79-76, Gonzaga 107-81, UCLA 88-63, Texas (80-52), @USC 105-61, @Stanford 76-75
Bad Losses: @Purdue 69-72, @Connecticut 69-71, Miss. St. 74-75, @Oregon 67-79, @UCLA 77-79
Other Losses: @Ililnois (73-81), Stanford 76-85
NBA Talent: Gilbert Arenas, Loren Woods, Richard Jefferson, Jason Gardner and Michael Wright will all most likely play in the NBA.
Shooters: Arenas (.411, 60-141), Gardner (.391, 66-169), Jefferson (.343, 23-67)
Defensive Stopper: Gilbert Arenas can guard top guards and Loren Woods is a deluxe shotblocker.
Backcourt: Gardner and Arenas are one of the very best backcourts in the country.
Leadership: The Cats have plenty of tournament experience, but it is debatable whether they have one player who is willing to step up and lead.
Prognosis: The Cats have the best starting five in America and are the team to beat if Woods shows up.
|
|
Starters: C - Carlos Boozer (6-9 SO), PF - Shane Battier (6-8 SR), SF - Nate James (6-6 SR), SG - Mike Dunleavy, Jr. (6-8 SO), PG - Jason Williams (6-2 SO)
Key Reserves: PG - Chris Duhon (6-1 FR), C - Casey Sanders (6-11 SO)
Good Wins: Illinois 78-77, Texas 95-69, @Temple 93-68, Boston College 97-75, @Maryland 98-96(ot), Virginia 103-61, Georgia Tech 98-54, @UNC 95-81, Maryland (n) 84-82, UNC(n) 79-53
Losses: @Stanford 83-84, UNC 83-85, @Virginia 89-91, Maryland 80-91
NBA Talent: In Williams, Battier, Boozer, Dunleavy and Duhon, Duke has five potential first round picks.
Shooters: Williams (.456, 103-226), Battier (.444 103-232), Dunleavy (.371, 43-116), Duhon (.359, 37-103)
Defensive Stopper: Battier is considered the best defender in the country.
Backcourt: Superb. Williams is the best guard in the nation
Leadership: Few players provide as much leadership as Battier.
Prognosis: Duke may be the best team in the country, but if Boozer doesn't come back the chances of them having a poor shooting game may increase as the tournament goes on and their legs get more tired. Still, they are virtually a shoo-in for the Final Four.
|
|
Starters: C - Jason Collins (6-11 SO), PF - Jarron Collins (6-10 SR), SF - Ryan Mendez (6-7 SR), SG - Casey Jacobson (6-6 SO), PG - Michael McDonald (6-1 SR)
Key Reserves: F/C - Justin Davis (6-8 FR), PF - Teyo Johnson (6-5 FR), PG - Julius Barnes (6-1 SO), PG - Tony Giovacchini (6-2 JR)
Good Wins: Georgia Tech 80-66, Duke 84-83, New Mexico 75-44, @Cal 88-56, @Arizona 85-76, @UCLA 85-79
Losses: UCLA 73-79, Arizona 75-76
NBA Talent: The Collins twins and Jacobson are sure-fire first rounders.
Shooters: Jacobson (.456, 72-158), Mendez (.398, 43-108), McDonald (.500, 46-92) , Jason Collins (.550, 11-20)
Defensive Stopper: McDonald
Backcourt: The emergence of McDonald has given the Cardinal a superb backcourt combination.
Leadership: Jacobson is a fiery player who provides a good complement to McDonald's steady leadership from the point guard position.
Prognosis: This team has all of the components to win it all. However, they must avoid getting overrun by a more athletic opponent to prevent a repeat of previous tournament failures.
|
|
Starters: C - Lonnie Baxter (6-8 JR), PF - Terence Morris (6-9 SR), SF - Danny Miller (6-7 JR), SG - Juan Dixon (6-3 JR), PG - Steve Blake (6-3 SO)
Key Reserves: G/F - Byron Mouton (6-5 JR), G - Drew Nicholas (6-3 SO), F - Tahj Holden (6-10 SO), F/C - Chris Wilcox (6-10 FR), C/F - Mike Mardesich (7-0 SR)
Good Wins: @Wake Forest 73-57, Oklahoma 68-60, @Duke 91-80, Virginia 102-67, Wake Forest(n) 71-53
Bad Losses: @Virginia 78-99, @Georgia Tech 62-72, @UNC 82-96, Florida St. 71-74
Other Losses: Illinois(n) 80-90, @Wisconsin 75-78(ot), UNC 83-86, Duke 96-98(ot), Duke(n) 82-84
NBA Talent: Baxter, Morris, Holden and Wilcox all have first round talent.
Shooters: Dixon (.424, 50-118), Nicholas (.436, 34-78), Blake (.375, 30-80), Mouton (.405, 15-37)
Defensive Stopper: Blake is an underrated defender and Dixon is a top ball thief.
Backcourt: Dixon is an assassin with a toughness that belies his slight frame and Blake is a highly creative point guard.
Leadership: Dixon
Prognosis: The Terps are playing as well as anyone in the nation right now. They have the talent and depth to matchup with any team. If Coach Williams can prevent himself from tightening up on his team, this team will be in the Final Four.
|
|
Starters: C - Zach Randolph (6-9 FR), PF - Andre Hutson (6-8 SR), SF - Jason Richardson (6-6 SO), SG - Charlie Bell (6-3 SR), PG - David Thomas (6-7 SR)
Key Reserves: PG - Marcus Taylor (6-3 FR), G/F Mike Chappell (6-8 SR), F/C Al Anagonye (6-8 SO)
Good Wins: UNC 77-64, Florida 99-83, Kentucky 46-45
Bad Losses: Penn State(n) 63-65, @Ohio State 55-64
Other Losses: @Indiana 58-59, @Illinois 66-77
NBA Talent: Randolph and Richardson could be lottery picks this summer and Taylor will be one in a couple of years.
Shooters: Richardson (.422, 43-102), Bell (.374, 46-123)
Defensive Stopper: Bell does an excellent job on scoring guards and the MSU may be the nation's best defensive team overall.
Backcourt: When Taylor plays, he teams with the steady and experienced Bell to form a fine all-around combination.
Leadership: Bell and Hutson have been important players on two Final Four teams.
Prognosis: The Spartans have a great coach in Izzo and play superb defense, but they shooting may let them down in the later rounds.
|
|
Starters: C - Marcus Griffin (6-8 SR), PF - Brian Cook (6-11 SO), SF - Sergio McLain (6-4 SR), SG - Cory Bradford (6-3 SR), PG - Frank Williams (6-3 SO)
Key Reserves: F - Lucas Johnson (6-6 JR), F/C - Robert Archibald (6-11 JR), F - Damir Krupalija (6-9 JR), G - Sean Harrington (6-3 SO)
Good Wins: @Maryland 90-80, Arizona 81-73, Michigan State 77-66
Bad Losses: @Iowa 62-78, @Penn State 95-98
Other Losses: @Arizona 76-79, @Duke 77-78, @Texas 64-72, @Ohio State 61-63, Indiana(n) 56-58
NBA Talent: Cook, Williams and even Archibald have bright pro futures.
Shooters: Bradford (.362, 59-163), Harrington (.470, 47-100), Cook (.382, 26-68), Williams (.324, 33-102)
Defensive Stopper: McLain
Backcourt: Williams can be selfish at times and Bradford has struggled this year.
Leadership: McLain is a champion who does the little things to help a team win.
Prognosis: This is a battle-tested team with excellent depth, toughness and fine all-around talent. However, inconsistent scoring could become a problem against elite opponents.
|
|
Starters: C - Brendan Haywood (7-0 SR), PF - Kris Lang (6-10 JR), SF - Jason Capel (6-8 JR), SG - Joseph Forte (6-4 SO), PG - Ronald Curry (6-3 SO)
Key Reserves: PF - Julius Peppers (6-6 SO), G/F - Max Owens (6-5 SR), G - Brian Morrison (6-2 FR)
Good Wins: @UCLA 80-70, , @Maryland 86-83, Maryland 96-82, @Duke 85-83
Bad Losses: @Michigan State 64-77, Kentucky 76-93, Clemson 65-75, Virginia 66-86, Duke 81-95, Duke(n) 53-79
NBA Talent: Haywood and Forte are guaranteed first round picks and Lang and Capel have pro potential.
Shooters: Forte (.397, 52-131), Capel (.433, 52-120), Morrison (.390, 16-41)
Defensive Stopper: Curry uses his strength and athleticism to stop opposing guards. Haywood is a dominating shotblocker.
Backcourt: Forte is an elite player, but Curry is a poor shooter and a huge liability from the free throw line.
Leadership: Forte carries this team on his back with his scoring. This is a team with a ton of tournament experience.
Prognosis: The Heels were playing very poorly at the end of the season, but they have the pieces to return to the Final Four again. Curry's inability to shoot free throws will be a big weakness that teams will exploit. UNC is definitely a cut below the elite teams.
|
|
Starters: C - Jason Parker (6-8 FR), PF - Tayshaun Prince (6-8 JR), SF - Keith Bogans (6-5 SO), SG - Gerald Fitch (6-3 FR), PG - Saul Smith (6-0 SR)
Key Reserves: PF - Marcus Estill (6-9 SO), F/C Marvin Stone (6-10 SO), F - Erik Daniels (6-7 FR), PG - Cliff Hawkins (6-1 FR), G - J.P. Blevins (6-2 JR)
Good Wins: @UNC 93-76, Mississippi(n) 77-55, Indiana 88-74, Notre Dame 82-71, @Tennessee 103-95
Bad Losses: @St. John's 61-62, Penn State 68-73
Other Losses: UCLA 92-97(n), @Georgia Tech 84-86, @Michigan State 45-46, @Mississippi 55-66, @Alabama 60-70, @Arkansas 78-82, @Florida 86-94
NBA Talent: Bogans and Prince could be first round picks after this season. Parker, Estill, and Stone have the talent to reach that level in a couple of years.
Shooters: Bogans (.359, 66-184), Fitch (.413, 26-63)
Defensive Stopper: Prince has the quickness and expansive wingspan to cause opponents problems at multiple positions.
Backcourt: Smith is experienced, but this backcourt does not look championship caliber.
Leadership: Smith, the coach's son, has a wealth of tournament experience.
Prognosis: The Wildcats have talent and a great tourney coach in Tubby Smith, but probably do not have the shooting to get the job done.
|
|
Starters: C - Dan Gadzuric (6-11 JR), PF - Matt Barnes (6-7 JR), SF - Jason Kapono (6-7 SO), SG - Billy Knight (6-4 JR), PG - Earl Watson (6-0 SR)
Key Reserves: G - Ray Young (6-3 JR), PG - Moose Bailey (6-2 SR), F - T.J. Cummings (6-9 FR)
Good Wins: @Stanford 79-73, Arizona 79-77, @USC 85-76
Bad Losses: Cal St.-Northridge 73-78, @Arizona 63-88, @Cal 63-92, @Washington 94-96
Other Losses: Kansas(n) 98-99, Georgia Tech 67-72, North Carolina 70-80, Stanford 79-85,
NBA Talent: Gadzuric, Kapono and Cummings have bright NBA futures ahead of them.
Shooters: Kapono (.455, 76-167), Knight (.427, 35-82), Watson (.356, 36-101)
Defensive Stopper: Barnes does the dirty work and Young is the top perimeter defender.
Backcourt: Watson and Knight do not form an elite backcourt, but they have been getting the job done as of late.
Leadership: Watson is an experienced player who has done a good job in leading this team back from a poor start.
Prognosis: This is a dangerous team with perimeter shooting and size on the inside. Coach Lavin usually has his team motivated in the tournament and a motivated UCLA could be a juggernaut with the potential to upset Duke.
|
|
Starters: C - Eric Chenowith (7-1 SR), PF - Nick Collison (6-9 SO), SF - Kenny Gregory (6-4 SR), SG - Jeff Boshee (6-1 JR), PG - Kirk Hinrich (6-3 SO)
Key Reserves: F/C - Drew Gooden (6-9 SO), G - Brett Ballard (6-0 JR), F/C - Jeff Carey (6-11 JR)
Good Wins: @UCLA 99-98, @Ohio State 69-68, @Oklahoma 69-61, Missouri 75-59
Bad Losses: @Wake Forest 53-84, @Baylor 77-85
Other Losses: @Missouri 66-75, Iowa State 77-79, @Iowa State 71-79, Oklahoma(n) 57-62
NBA Talent: Gooden is a first round caliber talent and Collison also looks like a pro. Chenowith is probably a pro based on size alone.
Shooters: Hinrich (.510, 52-102), Boshee (.358, 59-165), Gregory (.400, 20-50)
Defensive Stopper: No real stopper.
Backcourt: Solid, but a little slow.
Leadership: No real leader on this team.
Prognosis: Like KU teams from the recent past, this is a good team that is just flawed enough to not be a Final Four team. The lack of team quickness will definitely get exposed.
|
|
Starters: C - Martin Rancik (6-8 SR), PF - Paul Shirley (6-10 SR), SF - Kantrail Horton (6-1 SR), SG - Jake Sullivan (6-1 FR), PG - Jamal Tinsley (6-3 SR)
Key Reserves: SF - Tyray Pearson (6-7 JR), G - Brandon Hawkins (6-3 SO), F - Shane Power (6-5 FR)
Good Wins: @Mississippi 73-68, @Kansas 79-77, Kansas 79-71, Oklahoma 100-80
Bad Losses: @Iowa 68-80, @Texas 78-94, Baylor(n) 49-62
Other Losses: @Oklahoma State 80-88, @Missouri 109-112
NBA Talent: Tinsley is a likely first round pick.
Shooters: Sullivan (.447, 59-132), Horton (.398, 51-128), Tinsley (.383, 36-94), Power (.465, 20-43)
Defensive Stopper: Tinsley is a disruptive force on defense.
Backcourt: The Cyclones play a three guard attack. Tinsley is the best pure point guard in the country and he is supported by deadly shooters in Horton and Sullivan.
Leadership: Tinsley is the type of player who makes those around him better players. Many of the key players were on last year's team that made it to the regional finals.
Prognosis: Tinsley is the type of player, like Andre Miller was a couple of years ago for Utah, who can carry a team on his back to the Final Four. However, I would be very surprised if this overachieving team could get past either Maryland or Stanford.
|
|
Starters: C - Udonis Haslem (6-8 JR), PF - Matt Bonner (6-9 SO), SF - Major Parker (6-4 SR), SG - Teddy Dupay (5-11 JR), PG - Brett Nelson (6-3 SO)
Key Reserves: G - Orien Greene (6-4 FR), G - Ladarium Halton (6-4 SO), F - Bonell Colas (6-9 FR)
Good Wins: Tennessee 81-67, @Georgia 82-71, @Tennessee 88-82, Mississippi 75-55, Kentucky 94-86
Bad Losses: @South Carolina 68-69, Vanderbilt 61-63
Other Losses: @Michigan State 83-99, Georgia 72-75, @Kentucky 70-71, Mississippi (n) 69-74
NBA Talent: Nelson has the skills to one day play point guard in the NBA..
Shooters: Nelson (.451, 74-164), Dupay (.387, 60-155), Bonner (.384, 38-99), Parker (.404, 23-57)
Defensive Stopper: Parker takes the toughest assignments and can guard a variety of positions.
Backcourt: Very lethal, three-point shooting backcourt.
Leadership: Brent Wright was the leader on this team, but he is out for the tournament with a foot injury.
Prognosis: This is a dangerous team, but it is not the team it was last year. The losses of Wright and Justin Hamilton have thinned the depth on this team down to dangerous levels.
|
|
Starters: C - Uka Agbai (6-8 SO), PF - Xavier Singletary (6-6 SR), SF - Kenny Walls, Jr. (6-5 JR), SG - Kenny Harley (6-5 SR), PG - Troy Bell (6-1 SO)
Key Reserves: G - Ryan Sidney (6-2 FR), F - Jonathan Beerbohm (6-7 JR), F - Brian Ross (6-8 JR)
Good Wins: Connecticut 85-68, Syracuse 65-63, Providence 81-73, @Providence 59-58
Bad Losses: @Connecticut 71-82
Other Losses: @St. John's 71-73, @Duke 75-97,@Notre Dame 75-76
NBA Talent: Troy Bell looks like he has a chance.
Shooters: Bell (.401, 63-157), Harley (.440, 37-84)
Defensive Stopper: Sidney draws the tough defensive assignments in the backcourt.
Backcourt: Bell is the premier guard in the Big East. Harley can shoot and Sidney is a sparkplug off the bench.
Leadership: Bell is a true floor general. However, this is a team with no NCAA tournament experience.
Prognosis: BC was a classic overachiever during the regular season in a weak Big East conference year, but their lack of talent will get exposed in the tournament. They simply pose no threat to Kentucky or Duke.
|
|
Starters: C - Rahim Lockhart (6-8 SR), PF - Justin Reed (6-8 FR), SF - Jason Holmes (6-5 SR), SG - David Sanders (6-3 SO), PG - Jason Flanigan (6-1 SR)
Key Reserves: PG - Jason Harrison (5-5 JR), G - Aaron Harper (6-5 FR), G - Emanuel Wade (6-3 SO)
Good Wins: Oklahoma 60-55, @USC 84-83, Kentucky 65-55, Arkansas 84-73, Tennessee 87-71, Tennessee 86-73, Florida(n) 74-69
Bad Losses: @Alabama 63-82, @Mississippi State 69-79, @Florida 55-75, Kentucky(n) 55-75
Other Losses: Iowa State 68-73, Georgia 66-70
NBA Talent: Reed may become an NBA prospect.
Shooters: Harrison (.405, 34-84), Harper (.370, 60-162), Holmes (.361, 39-108), Flangian (.356, 36-101)
Defensive Stopper: Flanigan is one of the best defensive guards in the SEC.
Backcourt: A reasonably competent if not championship-caliber bunch.
Leadership: Flanigan is a solid leader from the point guard position, but this team has tournament experience.
Prognosis: This team simply does not fit the profile of an NCAA Final Four team. The talent level is inadequate and the Rebs definitely suffered enough bad losses late in the year to give you the feeling that this team is another overachiever that is ready to fall hard.
|
|
Features
Marbury for Kidd
2001-2002 Eastern Conference Preview
Future Stars
2001 NBA Draft Grades
2001 NBA Draft Scouting Report
Zoned Out
|
