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NCAA Final Four Preview
By Gene Huh
Maryland vs. Duke
In playing three very exciting games this season, Duke and Maryland have shown that they are two very evenly matched teams with styles of play that make for very attractive basketball. Duke runs a free-form motion offense that does not depend heavily on set plays and Maryland runs a lot of flex action. Both teams like to run and because Maryland has so much depth and athleticism, Maryland does a lot of full-court pressing.
| Starting Lineups |
| Center |
Carlos Boozer 6-9 SO
Boozer, who is still not 100% after suffering a foot injury, has the physical tools to dominate. Unfortunately, he does not always play with intensity or aggressiveness. If he can draw double-team attention, his presence will open up Duke's shooters on the perimeter to bomb away with impunity.
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Lonnie Baxter 6-8 JR
After a terrible first game against George Mason, Baxter has bounced back and is now playing as well as any player in the tournament. Baxter has used his strength and quickness to dominate bigger opponents and should have his way with both Boozer or Sanders if Duke chooses not to double down with help. Although Duke usually does not double team in the post, they will do well to double Baxter and force him to pass.
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| Power Forward |
Shane Battier 6-8 SR
The most complete player in the nation, Battier is a lethal shooter with unlimited range and superior defensive skills. He can also put the ball on the floor to blow past bigger defenders. Battier uses a variety of jab steps and ball fakes to free himself on the perimeter and is not merely a catch-and-shoot specialist. Battier is very effective both as an on-the-ball defender and as a help defender, but does not dominate on the backboards against bigger and powerful opponents.
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Terence Morris 6-9 SR
One of the most gifted players in the nation, Morris' inconsistency is baffling. Last year, he was very capable of drilling three pointers while closely guarded, but this year, his shot has completely deserted him. He has a variety of low post moves and guard-like ballhandling skills, but his lack of strength and toughness limit him. Still, Morris is a terrific shotblocker and rebounder who matches up very well with Battier.
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| Small Forward |
Mike Dunleavy 6-8 SO
A surprisingly good athlete, Dunleavy has excellent ballhandling skills, which he uses to perform spin moves off the drive. A good shooter with range, Dunleavy can hurt teams that try to help off him. His long arms make him a pest on the boards and a shotblocker against smaller opponents. Right now, Dunleavy lacks the strength and consistency to be a dominating player, but in time, Dunleavy will become an elite player and an NBA lottery pick.
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Byron Mouton 6-6 JR
Mouton is a good athlete who can provide effective offense in streaks. A good shooter with range, Mouton can hurt teams from the perimeter and has the ballhandling skills to create his own shot off the dribble. He also gives solid help on the offensive glass. However, Mouton is not a terrific defender and could get exploited by the very crafty Dunleavy.
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| Shooting Guards |
Chris Duhon 6-1 FR
Duhon will, in time, develop into one of the top point guards in the nation. He has a good jump shot, but right now, he lacks consistency shooting from beyond the arc. Although he is not as explosive as his partner Jason Williams, Duhon is a fine athlete who can jump out of the gym. His athleticism serves him well as an on-the-ball defender, but he was exploited off the ball by Juan Dixon in the game at Durham.
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Juan Dixon 6-3 JR
Dixon is perhaps the most underrated player in the country. Off the ball, Dixon is in perpetual motion, running opponents off of screens. His backdoor cuts have proven especially lethal against Duke. An excellent shooter with range, Dixon can create his own shot or catch and shoot. His ability to drive makes it suicidal for defenders to play him merely for the outside shot. As a defender, Dixon is a deadly ball thief with quickness. Few players play with more heart or intensity.
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| Point Guard |
Jason Williams 6-2 SO
Perhaps the best player in the country, Williams is an assassin on the offensive side of the floor. A terrific shooter with exceptional range, Williams can get his shot anytime he wants. He can pull up off the dribble or put it on the floor and take it to the rack. If the referees allow him to get away with carrying, Williams' crossover dribble can be unstoppable. His ability to drive and dish frees up Duke's other three-point shooters for open looks. The only weakness in his game is his on-the-ball defense against dribble penetration.
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Steve Blake
One of the finest pure point guards in the nation, Blake is a very creative passer and good ballhandler who makes Maryland's offense go. Not just a passer, Blake has developed into a fairly effective three-point shooter. Defensively, Blake is very effective pressuring the ball, using his height and reach to full advantage. He has done as good a job defensively as anyone in the country against Jason Williams.
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| Reserves |
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Nate James 6-6 SR
James was a starter earlier this season, but now he provides solid support at a variety of positions off the bench. A well-built athlete, James defends and boards fairly well. Offensively, James has lost confidence in his outside shot, but he can drive to the hoop and finish in transition.
Casey Sanders 6-11 SO
Sanders may start against Maryland ahead of Boozer. A good athlete, Sanders is an effective shotblocker with rudimentary offensive skills. He is very foul-prone, but his improved play during Boozer's absence, keyed Duke's red hot ACC tournament run.
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Danny Miller 6-7 JR
A former McDonald's All-American, Miller has been a disappointment thus far. However, he has started to come on ever since a sparkplug-like performance at Durham versus Duke. Miller is a better defender than Mouton and has started to hit the open three-pointer. He can handle the ball well, but is a little mistake-prone.
Tahj Holden 6-10 SO
A powerfully built frontcourt player, Holden gives Maryland size and bulk at the power forward position. He is also Maryland's second best three-point shooter.
Drew Nicholas 6-3 SO
The backup point guard, Nicholas can shoot the ball from the perimeter and handle the ball reasonably well. However, Nicholas is not a pure point guard and the Maryland offense suffers a drop-off when he subs in for Blake.
Mike Mardesich 7-0 SR
Although he has not developed as much as some would have hoped, Mardesich is an effective reserve big man. He brings size and aggressiveness to the table and can score inside. His height and ability to rebound could hurt Duke inside the paint.
Chris Wilcox 6-10 FR
Wilcox is an extremely talented young big man with the skills to develop into a terrific player. He's athletic, strong and has a very nice shooting touch. Right now, it seems that Williams does not trust him enough to give him more than 8 to 10 minutes a game, but Wilcox is definitely a nice option to have off the bench in case Holden or Mardesich get into foul trouble.
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Prediction
Maryland vs. Duke IV is sort of like Ali-Frazier in that the two opponents are so familiar with each other and match up so well. Duke is one bad shooting half away from elimination and nobody has done a better job against Jason Williams and Battier than Maryland. If Maryland can prevent Duke from jumping on them early, I expect Maryland's superior depth and rebounding to wear down Duke in the second half.
Maryland 91 Duke 89
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Arizona vs. Michigan State
Defending champion Michigan State is back in the Final Four for the third straight year and Arizona is back for the first time since they won it all in 1997. Michigan State has used its familiar formula of great rebounding and tough defense to get back and Arizona has used its superior athleticism to earn its return ticket. Arizona may be able to run on MSU by leaking out on the break when the Spartans crash the offensive boards. Overall, both teams rebound well and play very tough man-to-man defense, but the Spartans' lack of perimeter shooting can be exposed by an educated zone defense.
| Starting Lineups |
| Center |
Loren Woods 7-1 SR
Woods has had an up and down senior season that has been marred by NCAA and team suspensions. When he is at the top of his game, Woods is an athletic center who can change a game with his shotblocking. He lacks the strength to anchor himself on the low blocks and gets pushed around by shorter but more physical foes. Offensively, Woods has a very good shooting touch facing the basket and is a very good free throw shooter. He does not rebound as well as a player with his height, reach and athleticism should. Basically when Woods comes to play, Arizona is unbeatable.
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Aloysius Anagonye 6-8 SO
After looking like a foul machine during his freshman year, this "bull in a china shop" has really toned down his act. A very physical player with pretty good mobility, Anagonye is an enforcer and a good rebounder when he is not in foul trouble. Anything the Spartans get from Anagonye offensively is considered a bonus.
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| Power Forward |
Michael Wright 6-7 SR
Wright is the physical enforcer for the Wildcats, despite being undersized. This Chicago native is a force posting up in the low post and a very effective rebounder. His strength, left-handedness and quickness makes him a difficult player to defend. Not a particularly good perimeter shooter, if a defender can push Wright away from the basket, he becomes much less effective. Athletic shotblocking can bother Wright as he is not very tall and does not possess explosive leaping ability.
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Andre Hutson 6-8 SR
A steady, experienced force in the paint, Hutson has been a constant on the Spartans for four years. The left-handed Hutson is virtually automatic on short turnaround jumpers and can face up for the short to midrange jumper. A strong but athletic player, Hutson gives an honest effort on the boards and on defense. His matchup with Wright will be one of the keys to the game.
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| Small Forward |
Richard Jefferson 6-7 JR
Jefferson is an explosive athlete with terrific all-around skills. He has a muscular physique to go along with his exceptional leaping ability and quickness. Jefferson has an excellent shooting stroke from beyond the arc and can put the ball on the floor to explode past defenders off the dribble. As a defender, Jefferson can shut down both small forwards and shooting guards. Some people feel that Jefferson can be taken off his game if he is banged around. Overall, Jefferson has the talent to develop into a much better player once he reaches the NBA.
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Jason Richardson 6-6 SO
If Jefferson is not the most explosive athlete in the nation, Richardson surely is. An exceptional leaper, Richardson is a force on the offensive glass and on alley oop lobs. Richardson is an effective slasher, but only an average shooter. He has been in a shooting slump during the tournament, but during the season, Richardson shot a pretty good percentage from beyond the arc. It remains to be seen how Richardson will perform when matched up with a player with similar athletic ability in Jefferson.
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| Shooting Guard |
Gilbert Arenas 6-3 SO
The go-to-guy for the Wildcats, Arenas is a big-time scorer who can light it up when he is on a roll. Although he is not a pure shooter, Arenas has the range to be very effective from beyond the arc. In transition and off the dribble, Arenas is an absolute greyhound and a virtually automatic finisher. His ballhandling skills are very good and despite his scoring ability, Arenas is definitely a team player.
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Charlie Bell 6-3 SR
Bell was an unheralded role player on last year's national championship team, but this year he has stepped up into a leadership role. His steady ballhandling, excellent shot selection and lock-down defensive abilities have been pivotal in MSU's tournament run. Few guards rebound as effectively as Bell. As an offensive player, Bell is effective on the drive, but is only effective from beyond the arc when he is wide open. His defensive matchup against Arenas will be another one of the keys to the game.
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| Point Guard |
Jason Gardner 5-10 SO
Gardner is the little engine that makes the Wildcats go. A stocky guard with excellent quickness, Gardner is a scoring point who plays better in the open court than in the half court. A good shooter with range, Gardner occasionally takes too many outside shots. There are no effective point guard reserves on the Wildcat roster, therefore, it is critical that Gardner play as many minutes as possible.
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David Thomas 6-7 SR
Strictly a role player, Thomas went off for 19 points in the regional finals against Temple. A very tall backcourt player, Thomas can bother opponents with his height and reach. As a senior, Thomas provides the steadiness that experience brings, but Marcus Taylor will probably get more playing time than Thomas in the Final Four.
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| Reserves |
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Luke Walton 6-8 SO
Although he is not half the talent that his old man was, Walton is a very valuable reserve for the Wildcats. An excellent passer, Walton can make plays for his teammates. As an offensive player, Walton has good touch, but is not a true threat.
Gene Edgerson 6-6 SR
The very retro-styled Edgerson is an undersized inside player who is an animal on the boards. His offense is basically limited to putbacks, but his hustle and toughness can energize the Wildcats when they get a little lethargic or soft.
Justin Wessel 6-8 SR
This Iowa native was invaluable when Woods was out, but is basically a limited role player. He can hit the midrange jump shot and will throw his body around, but he will not be a game-changer off the bench.
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Zach Randolph 6-9 FR
Randolph does not start, but he receives the majority of playing time at the center position. A quick player without great leaping ability, Randolph uses his strength, quickness and post fundamentals to school opponents with his back to the basket. His left-handedness makes him even more difficult to guard. He is also a very good rebounder and a physical presence on defense.
Marcus Taylor 6-3 FR
Another McDonald's All-American, Taylor's game reminds some of Mike Bibby. A cerebral performer with good, but not great athleticism, Taylor is a very good shooter with outstanding point guard instincts. His decision-making continues to improve and his creativity with the ball makes his teammates better.
Mike Chappell 6-8 SR
Once a highly-touted recruit, Chappell never lived up to the comparisons to Grant Hill. A fluid athlete with an excellent shooting stroke and range, Chappell appears to have lost his jump shot this year.
Adam Ballinger 6-9 JR
A slow player whose primary job is to bang bodies in the paint, Ballinger has a pretty good shooting touch. Right now, Ballinger's primary job is to give the other big men breathers.
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Prediction
If Michigan State can take Loren Woods out of the game with physical play and pound Arizona on the offensive glass, they will win the game. However, if Arenas can get off to a good start and if Arizona's interior defense can limit the Spartans to perimeter shots, they will win. This game will be a matchup of evenly matched opponents with contrasting styles. The team that can dictate the style of play will win the game.
Arizona 80 MSU 77
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